It advances the harvest with good you render

Hydric deficit in the Buenosairean southwest

Rains of the weekend alleviated good part of the surface cultivated in humid Pampas, which allows to maintain the prognoses of you render agricultural exceptional.

The cultures of the Buenosairean southwest and the east of Pampas, nevertheless, need a new contribution water to evolve normally. In the province of Santa Fe and some sectors of Cordova also more rains are required.

to be fulfilled the weather forecast, between the day after tomorrow and next Friday the fields will be able to recompose their humidity reserves with precipitations of equal level that the last weekend. This would mainly benefit to the maize and the sunflower. In the case of first, a harvest superior to 14 million tons is foretold. In the second, it is not anticipated to obtain more than 3.8 million tons.

The Buenosairean north was the area more favored in last rains. The soybean in Parchment, Junín, Red, Chivilcoy, Bragado and 9 of Julio received in specific places more than 100 millimeters.

"There were in nourished zones interesting even affluent rain nuclei of reserves. The important thing is that they cut the sequence of elevated temperatures ", evaluated Caesar Rebella, to title of the Institute of Climate and Water of the INTA Castelar.

The technician noticed that the "scene of risk" will be in the middle of March, just at the moment of the harvesting, with rains over the normal thing. "Hopefully the producers have taken precautions having chosen seeds from varieties of short cycle and have prepared the rural ways", said Rebella.

If a rainy autumn arrived, the preoccupation to save the harvest will have its effect on the prices. "If east prognosis were fulfilled, the market will stay unstable, volatile", explained Enrique Erize, vice-president of the Novitas consultant.

As far as the definition of the yields, it evaluated, one will gamble east month. "If we return to the temperatures of the last week, a 20% of the cultivated surface (more than 2 million hectares) will have problems", anticipated.

Nevertheless, according to Cereal stock-market of Buenos Aires, until important damages have not taken place now that they seriously affect the potential productivity of the soybean.

"If rains which they took place in the east of Buenos Aires generalize towards the north of the region (Santa Fe and Cordova) the consequences will be reverted that on some areas had bad weather", indicates the report.

The 12 percent of the soybean harvest was already commercialized (about 3.6 million tons), with values of 145/150 dollars by ton to May.

The market of Chicago is more sensible the harvest of soybean in South America that to the little humidity reserve in its territory, explained Erize. The fact is that Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay and Bolivia would obtain 88 million tons of soybean, a level very superior to which obtained the United States the last year.

In opinion of Javier Buján, commercial manager of the runner Granar SA, if 36 million tons of soybean were obtained about, the market would manage to maintain good prices, instead of falling to 130 dollars by ton of the oily one, as they anticipate some analysts.

From their point of view, "the 80 percent of the harvest already is assured, shows a very good development", indicated with optimism the analyst.